Can Scotland finally end their long-standing losing streak?

Match action
New Zealand have made three modifications to the side that defeated the Irish team

Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, the Scottish capital Date: this weekend Time: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Match moment
Graham crossed the line in the narrow loss to New Zealand in the previous encounter

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.

Rachel Edwards
Rachel Edwards

Certified spinning instructor and fitness blogger passionate about helping others achieve their health goals through dynamic workouts.