What Makes The Current American Government Shutdown Different (and More Intractable)?

Placeholder image Government shutdown illustration

Shutdowns have become a recurring feature of US politics – but this one feels especially difficult to resolve because of shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity among the two parties.

Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave as both political parties can't agree regarding budget legislation.

Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock continue to fall short, with little visibility on a clear resolution path in this instance as each side – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in digging in.

These are the four ways that make this shutdown distinct currently.

1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – beyond healthcare issues

The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Well now Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show they have listened.

In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. This time he's digging in.

This is a chance for Democrats to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.

The Democrats are using the budget standoff to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.

Additionally, they're attempting to restrict executive utilization of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.

Second, For Republicans, they see potential

The administration leader along with a senior aide have made little secret their perspective that they perceive an opening to make more of the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency to date.

The President himself said last week that the shutdown had afforded him a "unique chance", and that he would look to cut "Democrat agencies".

The White House said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".

The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.

The budget director has previously declared the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.

3. There's little trust on either side

Whereas past government closures have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.

Instead, there is rancour. The bad blood persisted recently, as both sides exchanging accusations regarding the deadlock's origin.

The legislative leader from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and maintaining positions over a deal "for electoral protection".

Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.

The President himself has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader along with another senior in the House, where the legislator is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.

The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.

Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability

Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown.

That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of federal operations connected to commercial interests cease functioning.

The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.

Economic forecasters project potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.

This might explain partially why financial markets have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.

On the other hand, experts indicate that if the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become more long-lasting.

Rachel Edwards
Rachel Edwards

Certified spinning instructor and fitness blogger passionate about helping others achieve their health goals through dynamic workouts.